Is China Headed for a Breakup Just Like The Soviet Union’s?

The Wall Street Journal article “The Coming Chinese Crackup” by Dr. David Shambaugh, a leading expert on China, forecasts that China may be heading towards the same political breakup the Soviet Union experienced in 1991 under Mikhail Gorbachev.

“China-watchers have been on high alert for telltale signs of regime decay and decline ever since the regime’s near-death experience in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Since then, several seasoned Sinologists have risked their professional reputations by asserting that the collapse of CCP (Chinese Communist Party) rule was inevitable.”

Dr. Shambaugh suggests:

“Consider five telling indications of the regime’s vulnerability and the party’s systemic weaknesses.”:

1. Many of the richest and most powerful citizens are making plans to leave China permanently. Some have already left the country. A large number have already transferred their wealth to safe havens.

2. Since becoming China’s leader, Mr. Xi Jinping, has arbitrarily increased political repression. The crackdown is severe compared to the tactics of prior leaders. One signal that he is not popular are reports that he recently changed his security detail.

3. A number of CCP’s leaders have signaled that they are not happy.

4. The extensive corruption continues which is corroding support for the CCP and Mr. Xi’s policies and actions.

“Moreover, Mr. Xi’s campaign is turning out to be at least as much a selective purge as an antigraft campaign. Many of its targets to date have been political clients and allies of former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin.”

5. The economy is not an unstoppable and powerful force. There are problems which are not easily fixed. “…economy that has slowed to its lowest pace in two decades.” My question: Will China experience the economic malaise Japan experienced?

Dr. Shambaugh’s conclusion:

“These five increasingly evident cracks in the regime’s control can be fixed only through political reform. Until and unless China relaxes its draconian political controls, it will never become an innovative society and a “knowledge economy”— a main goal of the Third Plenum reforms. The political system has become the primary impediment to China’s needed social and economic reforms. If Mr. Xi and party leaders don’t relax their grip, they may be summoning precisely the fate they hope to avoid.“

Based on my experiences managing a business in China, I see Dr. Shambaugh’s treatise as reasonable. I suggest adding the following intractable problems to the Sinologist’s lists of telltale signs of that may result in decay and decline:

• Servicing the massive debt China has incurred to support economic growth.

• Its hazardous environmental conditions.

• A number of its manufacturing operations are inefficient with knowledge, processes and productivity comparable to the USA in the 1970s.

Dr. Shambaugh is a professor of international affairs and the director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. His books include “China’s Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation” and, most recently, “China Goes Global: The Partial Power.”

Follow-up articles:

BBC May 10, 2015 “China Cuts Interest Rates to 5.1%” – to stimulate economic growth

Bloomberg April 28, 2015 “China Is Set to Lose Manufacturing Crown”

Reuters’ April 15, 2015 “China growth slowest in six years, more stimulus expected soon”

Criticism of GE’s CEO, Jeffrey Immelt

A March Money Watch article on Jeffrey Immelt, titled 'GE Has Been An Investor Disaster Under Jeff Immelt', is strongly critical of his relatively high level of compensation as it relates to GE’s depressed stock price. Mr. Immelt is General Electric Company’s Chief Executive Officer.

An example of the criticism:

"By any measure of shareholder value, GE has been a disaster under Jeffrey Immelt. Investors haven't made a nickel since he took the helm as chairman nine years ago. In fact, they've lost tens of billions of dollars."

There is certainly room to criticize Mr. Immelt’s salary, bonus, common stock grants and retirement plan while GE’s stock price and profit performance are in the doldrums. However the article does not analyze the condition of GE’s operating businesses. Have its divisions deteriorated? Are there market share losses? Are its operating units registering Operating Losses? Or is its poor profit performance related solely to the 2007-2010 financial and economic crisis?

During this crisis most blue-chip, well-run companies have experienced sales and operating profit declines of 20% - 30% with large declines in the price of their common stock. Although slightly improved recently, many prices are still sluggish and down.

This even includes my Alma Mater, Emerson Electric Co., one of the best managed companies in this country. Emerson has registered sales and operating profit declines of 20%-30%. But their operating divisions have continued to perform well.

Chief Executive Officers are responsible for the operating performance of the businesses they manage – this is their primary role. Granted their tenure is also dependent on the stock price. If the performance of GE’s operating businesses has deteriorated, then Mr. Immelt should be criticized and replaced as CEO.